I think there has been an appreciable shift of opinion amongst fans of TRFC recently.
Unlike the ‘invest: speculate to accumulate’ rhetoric featured in the press and by ex-players, the ordinary fans are coming to the realisation that there is no quick fix. There are even murmurings that there may never be a fix which involves their club becoming a competitive force.
Poor management of fan expectations has long been an accusation levelled at the TRFC board by SFM. It is possible though that many fans are beginning to manage their own expectations rather better. There are certainly justifiable criticisms of the manager, Mark Warburton, but alongside that is a realism about the limitations and constraints that he is working under.
There is a rather misguided, and possibly not accurate assumption that another liquidation for a team out of Ibrox would result in having to start ‘yet again’ in the bottom division; but in fact there is a growing acceptance that consolidation in the top league is a much better solution than gambling on huge borrowing simply to stop Celtic adding more notches to the goalpost.
Could it be that the fans are about to do the job that the board haven’t had the balls to do –accept the gap between themselves and (at least) Celtic, and settle for mediocrity on the field as a short term price to pay for continuity?
During the 1990s, in the middle of the Murray/BoS fuelled spending spree, and with Celtic in the doldrums, it seemed to many Celtic fans that their club would never be able to bridge that gap. Of course they did, but at the emotional cost of losing the exclusive 9IAR record.
TRFC now find themselves in pretty much the same position, but their road to bridging the current gap is a more difficult one.
There are similarities of course. Like the Celtic of the 90s, Rangers have major infrastructure challenges to meet. Celtic had a stadium to build, Rangers have Ibrox (and Auchenhowie) to fix and improve. Both required massive investment to improve the team, although I would argue that Rangers have a steeper hill to climb in that area.
Unlike RFC of the 90s, Celtic’s accrued wealth has nothing to do with an intravenous hook-up between their bank account and the chairman’s pals at the bank. Their baseline advantage over the current Rangers predicament is a combination of a stadium which holds 10,000 more fans than Ibrox, no debt, a burgeoning cash balance and the current inflow of European cash.
The Euro cash and the cash balance could be depleted, but the 10,000 extra seats won’t.
It also seems difficult to imagine how TRFC can obtain seed capital – even if they were inclined to gamble – given the combination of barriers to achieving that;
- They have a PLC with no stock market listing
- They have NO executive directors on the PLC board
- The current chairman is a convicted criminal, convicted of offences involving money
- The current chairman and vice-chairman are both directors of a previously liquidated club, and therefore associated with the financial mismanagement which brought that about.
- In that climate, sponsorship deals are hard to come by. Major sponsors want to be associated with stability, success and integrity. TRFC don’t tick many boxes in that regard.
- Banks do not lend to football clubs. Pre Murray/Masterton, football clubs were cash businesses with modest overdraft facilities to cover modest cash-flow peaks and troughs. The banks have returned to that model. 1987-2007 was the exception, not the norm.
- They are at war with a powerful and substantial shareholder in Mike Ashley.
- There is still litigation pending on more than one front which could even call into question the ownership of the club’s assets.
- They are in debt already (estimated at around £15m).
- The current onfield situation may require yet another write-off in terms of contracts.
Any one of those bullet points could be enough to derail any plan to get to the top. In combination, there may even be an existential question to answer.
That is why the fans are starting to look a lot smarter than the board, and ultimately the good sense of the fans may well help the board to find a way out of their current dilemma.
But even with realistic expectations from the supporters, is it possible that they can find a way? Is there for instance someone with a magic wand or bag of cash who could come in and turn it around? Perhaps, but who would risk money on a precarious venture like a football club when one of the most powerful businessmen in the country is in dispute with you?
In order for serious inward investment to happen;
- Ashley has to be reconciled with the board (needs King and Murray to go).
- The debt has to be written off .
- The new investor(s) has to be given control of the club (and this would perhaps require another 75% special resolution where current shareholders would be asked to vote to dilute their own influence).
- If they achieved that (and it is a pretty big if) the new investor cash would go into the club’s bank account – not used to pay off the debt – and they would be free to pursue new and better sponsorship deals, improve the merchandising contract with an onside Ashley, and add new revenue streams.
Even then, any new board would need to see the infrastructure challenges as paramount. Having one eye squinting in the direction of Parkhead will blur the bigger picture.
Their priority should be to reduce the losses (whilst increasing wages for better players), fix the stadium and the training ground (both in need of repair and improvement), build a scouting and youth infrastructure, and free up a (relatively modest) wad of cash to improve the playing squad.
In defence of the current board, the challenges facing them are almost vertical in incline. No matter how skilful they are, nothing other than someone with a barrowload of cash and a very long term outlook can put any kind of fix in place.
£50m might buy the debt and equity, and repair the stadium, but progress requires on-field improvement. It also needs stability, and therefore Ashley’s cooperation. The price of that is the head of Dave King.
Rangers will bring in more at the gate than Aberdeen, Hearts or Hibs, but they have a considerably higher cost base than those clubs. With better players, recurring costs will be even higher – much higher.
To square this circle, however unpalatable it appears to be, peace has to be made with Ashley. That is the key to being able to embark upon a journey that has any chance of success. Otherwise, the clocks will have to be reset to 2022, and the end of the SD contract, before progress can be made.
However there is no chance it can go on that long. Rangers fans may be increasingly less demanding in what they expect, but they will need to see some signs – and not just words – that a plan is in place.
The board are getting ready to throw Mark Warburton to the hounds (the MSM lapdogs have already been armed with poison pens to effect that). This will buy them some time, but not enough.
We’ve said it before, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll say it again;
For Rangers to have a fighting chance of competing at the top of football, King needs to be gone. If he does go, half of the barriers preventing the club raising cash are dismantled.
So is King’s departure a price worth paying? If he really had Rangers in his heart, he would say ‘Yes’.
http://willievass.photoshelter.com/image/I0000YE7JsdeU9gc
jimboFebruary 12, 2017 at 12:16
The last two articles by Tom English – BBC News online – has mentioned communication problems at Ibrox, leaks, rumours, divisive statements. I wonder who could be at the centre of all those types of goings on? There is also talk of senior figures at Ibrox being rode roughshod by someone acting above their proper station.
I will never forget that image of Traynor more or less demanding Warburton leave the press conference. Warburton looked humiliated.
I see the dead hand of Traynor all over the ills of the Ibrox circus in the past couple of years. But he seems to be flavour of the month with King.
__________________________
And should there be an element of ‘constructive dismissal’ in Warburton’s case, should it go to a tribunal, that might be a perfect, very public, example of the man’s authority as manager being ripped to shreds, by someone from outside the club apparently given the authority, by the board/King, to decide what he (Warburton) can, and can’t, say!
Are Smith and McLeod linked to Level 5.
Well clearly yes, but I mean as paid employees / freelance?
Re the employee and employer.
)
Are we not all looking for a better job(well the one’s on here who work
Any employer should know there employee is only two weeks notice away from quitting their employment.
for king to terminate MW employment because he was looking for other employment is farcical.
would an employer sack an employee if he was caught looking at the recruitment pages in the paper
If you were asked to comment on a resignation and you are part of the PR company who handle the business for the company who are having legal problems with the resignation that may lead to that company havin g legal action takenm against them, you would want to step back from making any such statements.You would expect to if asked be able to state that ,making any statements or opinions would be seen as less favourable as you ahve a vested interest in one side, ire they pay your wages through contractual work you do for them.
Saturday 11th. http://podbay.fm/show/307483087/e/1486771200?autostart=1
BILLY BOYCEFEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 00:44 But a source close to the first Englishman in the Gers hotseat told SunSport: “Mark categorically denies that he ever offered his resignation. The same goes for Davie and Frank.”
beat former Rangers midfielder Stuart McCall to land the job.This season Gers currently sit third in the Premiership, a whopping 27 points behind Celtic.”
————————–
And ST is not English then.
Anyway, one thing this has done. It has led Dave King to admit publicly that he is a shadow director of TRFC Ltd.
The mere fact that he made the statement does that, allied to the fact that he talks about the board (presumably including him) making various decisions with regards the management teams future. As far as I am aware they are employed by TRFC Ltd.
He isn’t on the board of TRFC Ltd, he is on the board of the company which holds it’s shares.
Nice photo of the castle this morning !!! .. ‘Mon the ‘Ton.
https://i.imgflip.com/1jhaf0.jpg
Davie Provan..i know i know.
Who, but the seriously gullible thinks king has either the cash or the contacts to make rangers a proper football club again?
—————————-
You davie,you davie.
You and the whole SMSM pedal it every week and you peddle the myth to the seriously gullible in your newspaper colum since king took over.
For gullible read back over your own newspaper colum you were one of the gullible that not only believed king had the cash and the contacts you shouted it from the roof top
ALLYJAMBOFEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 12:28
I will never forget that image of Traynor more or less demanding Warburton leave the press conference. Warburton looked humiliated.I see the dead hand of Traynor all over the ills of the Ibrox circus in the past couple of years. But he seems to be flavour of the month with King.
———————–When you watch friday’s press with warburton when he walks away to the door Traynor is standing on the other side. Wonder if MW said to him as he walked through the door.
“Do the board think i have resigned”?
Jingso.JimsieFebruary 12, 2017 at 11:42
‘….OK, I’m confused… which…..’
____________
SDM ( I ,metaphorically, spit) operated for years a relatively sophisticated , not necessarily illegal but morally reprehensible, ‘let’s confuse people’ show, perhaps best described as the ‘ For every five pounds Celtic spend, we will spend ten ‘ show.
All the talk, absolutely unquestioned, about his megabucks was subsequently shown to be smoke and mirrors, deliberately aimed at confusing people, while he ran up such huge debts that he had to find a way out.
The debts he ran up included debts to us all, in the shape of HMRC, when his adoption of the Discounted Option scheme was found to be not legitimate, but a tax evasion scheme so constructed as to confuse the general run of people.
This was dwarfed by the debts to HMRC occasioned by his abuse of an EBT scheme, structured in a struck-off lawyer/turned pornographer way designed to confuse HMRC never mind the rest of us. His use of the EBT scheme has been found by the Court of Session to be use as a deceitful tax evasion scheme.[ interesting, though, that our three wise men were happy to relieve themselves of the final decision by somehow seeing that there might be some wee point of law that they had overlooked, and allowing an appeal to the UK Supreme Court. The ‘blame’ for doing the ultimate dirty on the Liquidated club and on SDM ( if the Court of Session’s decision is upheld) will fall on the Supreme Court judges, mostly English, with perhaps one or two minority opinions which take the view that the Court of Session decision was flawed]
And Everything since SDM’s sale of Rangers Football club to CW has been nothing but deliberately confusing.
We had a farcical ‘Administration’ ; a farce of a character called CG embroiling our Football Authorities ( perhaps only too readily) in a despicable attempt to say that Liquidation actually means ‘continuity’; while the same CG manages somehow to have the assets of the liquidated club sold not to Sevco 5088, but to SevcoScotland, confusing everyone ( including apparently the arsical Administrators).
Honest to God,the whole saga has been nothing but DELIBERATELY confusing, with QCs talking nonsense about ethereal entities being alive though dead in flat cotradiction of Companies House records which show that there are two quite distinct entities in existence: RFC( in liquidation) and TRFC ltd !
And journalists continue to refuse even to ask hard questions, and thus let the Football Authorities off all kinds of hooks ( not least among which is the disgaceful failure of a certain plc to ask hard questions on behalf of its shareholders (not necessarily its ‘fans’) about the possible loss of millions of pounds occasioned by the granting by the SFA of a UEFA competition licence to a club that was absolutely NOT entitled to it.
I gnash my teeth ( or such as remain to me!) at the , at best, sheer stupidity of otherwise sharp and intelligent folk – and businessmen to boot- who could not see that as businessmen they were being conned right left and centre by not only a ‘business partner’ such as SDM, but by the people they elected/appointed to act with complete integrity in promoting the ‘business’ of professional football.
Essentially, though, there is no need to be confused. A cheating SDM baled out by selling Rangers to a chancer named CW, who put the famous old club into Administration, which two of Duff and Phelps’ ( global Duff and Phelps, New York) UK managing directors made a balls of, resulting in the Liquidation of that famous old club, and its death as a participator in a recognised Scottish professional football league.
Everything and anything else is mere wind and piss, as lying ‘businessmen’ men and dishonourable ‘journalists’ desperately try to pretend that black is white ,that it is the Rangers of their fathers and grandfathers that might/might not have sacked their management team, and that it is the Rangers of their fathers and grandfathers that are currently either playing ( was it a UK 12 o’clock kick-off? ) or are about to play Morton. (It’s 11.10 p.m here in Queensland, and I am sitting at my lap-top with the outside temperature at 27.8 Celsius. Earlier this afternoon it was 32/33. (Apparently this is the hottest summer that many old Australians remember, and in some places unprecedented temperatures have been reported, like 47 degrees in inhabited areas. God knows what it must be like just a few hundred miles away in the actual desert country!)
AJ, EJ,
Just put on the game there for the second half. Noticed that huge structure for the new stand. Looks like it is going to be very impressive. Perhaps you could send A. Budge over to Ibrox to have a look at the stands there. Put the rumours to bed once and for all !
Well Jimbo, I do hope theres enough left in the Jambos kitty to buy a new pitch. Looks like the builders have been parking the JCB’s on the current one.
theoldcourseFebruary 12, 2017 at 13:55
Well Jimbo, I do hope theres enough left in the Jambos kitty to buy a new pitch. Looks like the builders have been parking the JCB’s on the current one.
______________
Pitch is a mess, but is scheduled to be re-laid in the close season. Don’t know how that will fit in with the building of the new stand, though.
Theoldcourse,
Heard on Radio Scotland that Hearts are laying a new ‘hybrid’ turf similar to the one at Murrayfield, which has a good reputation. Anything would be better than that surface today. Murrayfield doesn’t get used that much, although you would imagine a rugby game is more punishing on a pitch than a football game. Will be interesting to see how it works out.
JC
Agree with general points other than to say that I don’t believe the continuation fantasy was Greens idea. No liquidation operator, particularly one as experienced as he is going to suggest his new creation should run the risk of expensive Phoenix accusations particularly in a situation where Green had sole rights to the “Rangers” brand name.
SMUGASFEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 14:32
Agree with general points other than to say that I don’t believe the continuation fantasy was Greens idea. No liquidation operator, particularly one as experienced as he is going to suggest his new creation should run the risk of expensive Phoenix accusations particularly in a situation where Green had sole rights to the “Rangers” brand name.
===================================
IIRC Duff & Phelps maintained throughout that the football business was being sold, and what remained would be liquidated. The fact there was only one business in the first place was never spoken of. Whether we think it is a sham, a stitch up, a farce or whatever the establishment, including the football authorities were never going to allow the notion that Rangers history ended in 2012. That would have meant Celtic eventually overtaking the number of trophies won and in my opinion that was simply too much for some figures of power in Scotland to contemplate.
Anyone know how long a tribunal will take to be set up, or the time frame for such matters or is the intervention of the English league managers association a quick way to get things going?
ALLYJAMBO
FEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 14:26
===============================
Am I not right in saying that you are playing your last few home games this season and first few next season at Hampden. Presumably that is to allow the time to get the stand done and new pitch laid.
In the real world, it looks as though the decision to pump Warbs, was taken sometime after his Friday presser, and before the 7:30 Glasgow Warriors kick-off on Friday evening.
UPTHEHOOPSFEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 14:57
That would have meant Celtic eventually overtaking the number of trophies won and in my opinion that was simply too much for some figures of power in Scotland to contemplate.
——————–
And contemplate come march or the next few years they are going to have to
UPTHEHOOPS
FEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 14:57
=================================
There were at least two entities involved, the club and the holding company (wavetower).
It wasn’t wavetower which went into administration then liquidation.
HomunculusFebruary 12, 2017 at 15:01
ALLYJAMBO FEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 14:26 ===============================
Am I not right in saying that you are playing your last few home games this season and first few next season at Hampden. Presumably that is to allow the time to get the stand done and new pitch laid.
__________________
No plans to play anywhere other than Tyncastle at the moment, Homunculus. Hearts have requested that their last 2 or 3 games will be away next season, and the first few away after the split. European qualifiers might lead to Hearts playing at either Murrayfield or Easter Road, though.
Presumably, all the work on the new stand requiring plant to enter the pitch area will be completed before the new pitch is laid.
HOMUNCULUSFEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 15:03 Rate This
UPTHEHOOPSFEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 14:57=================================
There were at least two entities involved, the club and the holding company (wavetower).
It wasn’t wavetower which went into administration then liquidation.
————————
The Company WAVETOWER LIMITED has been renamed to THE RANGERS FC GROUP LIMITED.Active – Proposal to Strike off (when checked on 7 Feb 2017)
to late to edit…
THE RANGERS FC GROUP LIMITED
Company number 07380537
14 Dec 2016
Compulsory strike-off action has been suspended
—————–
when i tried to view the PDF file….cannot display the web page
Tincks February 11, 2017 at 16:39
I’m going to try and make a list of all the investment of the last two years to see how close I can get to £18m. It’s not going well so far. Will post results later.
easyJambo February 11, 2017 at 17:25
The £18M “investment” using a glib and shameless calculator31/12/14 £2.660m – Three Bears share purchase02/01/15 £2.386m – New Oasis share purchase28/03/15 £1.500m – Shareholder loans28/03/15 £0.750m – Director Loans22/05/15 £1.500m – New Oasis Loan31/12/15 £1.700m – Director Loans31/12/15 £2.200m – New Oasis Loan31/12/15 £2.375m – Shareholder Loansnn/10/16 £2.900m – Investor LoansTotal ……£17.971m
————————————————————————————————————–
EJ. Beat me to it. This is the only conceivable way of DCK getting to £18m, (and of course the share purchase doesn’t really count).
I suppose that director/shareholder loans can be classed as investment (working capital), but as BP put it all this represents is a tap running at the seem speed as what is coming out of the hole at the bottom of the bucket.
Like BP it is the claims of being £18m into to the £30m that I find most astonishing in DCK’S statement. Is the provision of working capital to meet trading losses what Ranger’s supporters imagined when the £30m “Warchest” was promised. The lamb munchers have been in full cry today supporting DCK’s version of history and undermining MW’s credibility.
Surely, surely though at some point the penny must drop with the support that they have been had once more by another charlatan.
TINCKSFEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 15:30
Surely, surely though at some point the penny must drop with the support that they have been had once more by another charlatan.
———————–
KM scores, is that a 1-0 to MW in the propaganda fight as he tried to get a new contract for kenny.——–
sorry for all the posts i have an hour or two free time on my hands today
BP, interesting insights you shared above.
And it makes it even more curious: what happened behind the scenes at Ibrox between the Warbs’ presser and 9pm on Friday ?
What made his resignation / dismissal so urgent ?
You would think it more prudent to get the Morton cup game out of the way first before TRFC made any decision public?
Getting confused again!
ALLYJAMBO
FEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 15:19
=============================
Thanks, I’m not sure where I got that from. I thought it was a Hearts supporter of my acquaintance.
ok i just had to…
has kenny shown his support
Rangers v Clyde/ Ayr United anyone?
So close… Another home tie though – what a coincidence!
Hearts pitch had always been in decent nick until it was relaid in the summer of 2015. It had a natural camber that allowed it to drain well, but the pitch was flattened in 2015 and since then has been prone to waterlogging and cutting up. The turf looks as if it hasn’t grown into the sandy base on which it was laid.
Hearts, under Neilson, also trained at Tynecastle (effectively a closed door session) on the Friday before a game, meaning that the pitch has had double the use that it was getting previously. It may even be treble as they trained there before both home and away games.
Once again Sevco miraculously get a home tie in the cup, eight in a row I believe.
I have often read dismissive statements saying why would so and so, or hoojibobber be part of such a stitch up, as if the draw couldn’t possibly be fixed. The hot ball and the freezing cold ball etc have all been put forward as a possible means of ensuring the “right” result for the paupers, (sorry peepul). I’m sure Rod Stewart and many others before him would have remarked on the temperature inconsistency. That got me thinking……..
What if there was no need to heat/freeze the balls as those available to pick were exactly what was needed. I noticed during the last 2 draws, (unsure about earlier), the numbered balls are only in view once they have been drawn out. Even Uefa and FIFA, (hardly bastions of honesty and transparency) at least have un-numbered balls, in transparent bowls with the team name hidden inside.
In the SC draw we are never shown the balls going into the draw. What if, (nothing would surprise me with the SFA) at the start of the draw, there were only 6 balls in the “bowl”, (is it even a bowl as we are unable to see anything below the counter top), with 2 balls held back until the other 6 are drawn. Then by some means, (maybe Sandy Bryson hiding under the counter), no7 the Sevco ball is introduced and once drawn at home, the ball of the preferred/chosen opponent is introduced. I may be wrong, but I seem to remember the last drawn “venue” in the last round was predictably Ibrox and the same happened today.
This of course, could all be coincidence, but it would hardly need a Derren Brown skillset to fix the last 2 draws. It could be argued the drawmaker would notice only 1 ball left with 2 teams still to be drawn, but I’m sure Rod Stewart would never have noticed. I know it sounds incredible but there are many more incredulous examples of the SFA paving the way for the team from Govan….
Another Rangers home cup tie then ?
Just waiting for a dignified King statement insisting that this conclusively disproves Warbs’ ‘random theory’ approach to football management!
Some things in Scottish football do, in fact, appear to be certain.
Apart from the Cardigans secret EBTs would McCleish be the first publicised EBT recipient to get involved with the new old club? It would be an interesting appointment given the SC case.
The bonus culture is still prevalent among football’s administrators.
It seems that Doncaster and Topping have been rewarding themselves for last years sterling performance.
https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/scottish-football-chiefs-banked-110000-performance-bonus-last-year/
I’d like to know which SPFL chairman responded with “So it turns out Armageddon is quite lucrative after all!”
Tell me to shut up but I quite like the topic of pitches and stadia. I didn’t realise the Tynecastle pitch had been altered to improve the camber which seems to have caused the current problem. Although training on it on a Friday sounds silly, since in the same programme I heard Hearts have a pretty decent training facility at Heriot Watt University?
Talking about camber, Easter Road used to be infamous for it’s ‘hill’ but I haven’t been there for a few years (nor never played on it
) so I don’t know what it is like now.
Motherwell, ah poor Motherwell. One of my first away games. (spectator
)
When they built Strathclyde Country Park in the 1970s, they re directed the R. Clyde which caused all sorts of problems for Fir Park in terms of in and out water flow. Haven’t heard much about that recently.
Hampdump Park, well we all know the problems in there if there is a game on a Saturday followed by a Sunday (which is usually Celtic!).
Finally, I would just like all clubs to know that my young ‘gardiner’ sp. charges £10 per month. If I multiply that up I reckon he could deal with Hampden for £1k per month! (And that includes raking up the cut grass).
EASYJAMBO
FEBRUARY 12, 2017 at 21:22
The bonus culture is still prevalent among football’s administrators…
======================
A GBP 110K bonus pot for the SPFL senior management?
An organisation I would suggest is regarded by most (?) Scottish football fans as incompetent at best – and thoroughly corrupt at worst.
And it begs the question: what size would the bonus pot be if they performed even satisfactorily ? ?
They need to venture out of the Hampden bunker more often – to tune into the real world…
Whilst Sevco go about their business 3 guys are taking legal advice against King and more court .
I didnt see todays draw but all draws over the last 2/3 seasons have been done with a bowl where the balls are visible to the viewers at home.
The SFA up until a mess up last season had the names inside the balls as you suggest however when Lubo was doing the draw, the ball containing Morton opened up whilst still in the bowl which was visible to everyone watching the draw but was only noticed by the people drawing it when it was pulled out. They had to do a re-draw.
Since then, they moved to the numbers on the balls and if you look at the video below with Rod and Stubbsy doing the draw, you can see the balls clearly as has always been the case.
I know i have said it before but there would have to be too many people involved in order for this to be an actual conspiracy and fix and when you count the number of Celtic, Aberdeen, Hearts and Hibs legends or ex managers who have done the draws then it just doesnt make any sense at all.
Here is the Rod Stewart draw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YlZQN09w-Y
Here is the 4th round draw with Gary Holt where there is just no way possible for any accusation of it being a fix.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HH_1fknN0q8
And finally, here is the one where it all went wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N2kuHUUXyko
I genuinely would ask anyone who is convinced this is a fix to look at the 4th and 5th round draws above with Holt and Rod Stewart and offer up any reasonable minded explanation as to how it could be so.
Long time lurker here (since RTC days) logging in as a Forest fan with our eternal complaint, as there appears to be a debate about a phantom resignation from a zombie club in order to not join an imaginary team.
There is no team known as Notts Forest. Nor, unlike Rangers has there ever been such a team. There’s a team called Notts County (not an abbreviation) and a team called Nottingham Forest, sometimes shortened to Nottm Forest, but never, ever, ever, to Notts Forest, as that would confuse the mighty reds with the name of our older but far less successful brethen on the other side of the river.
I understand the confusion though. County play at Meadow Lane, which is in the City itself, rather than just the County. Forest, on play at the City Ground, on the other side of the Trent, so the City Ground is in Notts County, but not in Nottingham City, while the County ground is the one in the City. To make matters clear, the City Ground and County’s Ground are seperated by Trent Bridge, thought of course Trent Bridge Ground is a little further away, for those who like that sort of thing. Oh, and don’t be confused by the old Forest Ground in Nottingham itself, that’s Forest Recreation Ground, and used mostly for a Goose fair these days.
Anyway, apologies for the intrusion, just wanted to make sure your discussion of the Glasgow Celtics and the legendary Third Rangers of Lanark, (not to mention their city rivals Patrick Park and the noble amateurs of Queen’s Thistle) was as accurate as possible.
hopisen, or may we call you Hopps? ?
I think we should make your post a sticky ?
Mark C at 22.28. Agree with all of that and thank you for uploading the videos. So why go back to the black bag now? 8 balls in a clear fronted container on camera with a loose cloth “neck” so the drawer can’t see the balls. What is so difficult?
Regarding the probability of consecutive home draws in the cup, there are 64 possible combinations or outcomes when 6 different draws are made.
The probability of 6 consecutive homes is therefore 1in 64, but getting 6 seats, or any combination of home and away in a particular order is the same. Therefore although it intuitively seems odd, each outcome is equally likely or unlikely. Getting at least one away is a 63:64 chance though which puts a different spin on it. Ten draws make each outcome a 1:1024 chance with a 1023:1024 chance getting at least one of either.
That said, there are 63 of those combinations (63:64) that you get at least one home or away draw.
Conclusion is that whilst getting consecutive homes is unlikely, it’s not completely off the dial.
Hopisen,
Hilarious.
BP,
I don’t understand how odds work to be honest. But I really thought as far as home or away odds were, it would be like tossing a coin. Every time was 50-50. However, I was texting my wee brother this afternoon and I informed him that the odds of Rangers getting a home draw were now 1024 to 1 ON. He seemed satisfied with that. (I am ten years older, maybe he trusts my maths too much). I preferred James Forrest’s statement today, “anyone, anywhere”. Which is the attitude for any team with an aspiration to win a cup.
BP,
Absolutely, over the long-term the probabilities will be correct in a random selection.
The curious point is that while this ‘lucky’ streak is producing a string of home cup ties for TRFC – it is also happening right at the most fortuitous time for TRFC.
Don’t know how to calculate the odds of x consecutive home draws for a club
AND (i.e. multiplied by)
the odds of this occurring at EXACTLY the same time the same club (or its holding company) has cash flow problems / has Going Concern Warnings.
But would guess they would be rather high odds.
Big Pink February 13, 2017 at 00:31
Regarding the probability of consecutive home draws in the cup, there are 64 possible combinations or outcomes when 6 different draws are made.
The probability of 6 consecutive homes is therefore 1in 64, but getting 6 seats, or any combination of home and away in a particular order is the same. Therefore although it intuitively seems odd, each outcome is equally likely or unlikely. Getting at least one away is a 63:64 chance though which puts a different spin on it. Ten draws make each outcome a 1:1024 chance with a 1023:1024 chance getting at least one of either.
That said, there are 63 of those combinations (63:64) that you get at least one home or away draw.
Conclusion is that whilst getting consecutive homes is unlikely, it’s not completely off the dial.
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The sequence is now up to 11 home draws in all competitions (Cup, League Cup and Challenge Cup). I make the odds of 11 consecutive home draws 1 in 2048.
Looking at the probability figures for any sequence of 11 draws, the 2048 combinations are broken down as follows:
11 home – 1 – 0.05%
10 home – 11 – 0.54%
9 home – 55 – 2.67%
8 home – 165 – 8.06%
7 home – 320 – 16.11%
6 home – 462 – 22.56%
5 home – 462 – 22.56%
4 home – 320 – 16.11%
3 home – 165 – 8.06%
2 home – 55 – 2.67%
1 home – 11 – 0.54%
0 home – 1 – 0.05%
So, as you would expect, the probability percentages are heavily weighted towards an even split of home and away ties.
However, what is the probability of Rangers getting a 12th home draw in a row? Well it’s 50%, just like a coin toss.
I don’t think anyone seriously believes the Scottish Cup draw is in any way fixed, do they? How many people would you not only need to involve, but to keep silent as well? That includes all the new people they get every time the draw is made. Having said that like many others I can’t believe Rangers get so much luck with home draws when every penny is a prisoner, but luck alone I’m afraid it is.
EJ @ 02.13
your 12 in a row would require Rangers to be drawn at home in the semi final and that would surely be considered ridiculous?
UTH
so, again, why go back to the less transparent black bag approach?
Must admit that i missed yesterdays draw so wasnt aware they had went back to the bag. The only thing i would say and i didnt notice it first time round but when i watched the Rod draw back yesterday i noticed the hole was massive where they put their hands in and whilst i dont believe either of them consciously looked, i reckon if they wanted to, they could probably have seen numbers.
Worth having a look back and that might be a possible explanation.
All of the other draws have been transparent bowls.
Out of interest and this is for the guys who have worked out the odds, im certainly no mathematician but does the number of opportunities play a part in the odds.
IE – when you toss a coin, its a single event, 11 times in a row and therefore the odds above would be accurate.
However when you add multiple opportunities in does it change the odds. IE, instead of Rangers having 1 chance from 2 outcomes of being at home, they actually have 16 chances from 32, then 15 chances from 30 then 14 chances from 28 in the 4th round reducing to 8 chances in 16, 7 chances in 14 etc etc as the rounds get smaller.
I know its still 50/50 per draw but i just wonder if that element actually moves the accumulative odds somewhat. Would take a cleverer soul than I to work that out. 🙂
“I watched the “Malky” and “Stubbsie” double act cup draw yesterday with the hidden balls and smiled at another Ibrox home tie.
Don’t know how it happens but none of the “heavyweights” seemed to be drawn together either with a fair chance of the semis being made up of the four top teams.
At the end I felt a bit embarrassed watching Alex McLeish answering the question of whether he was favourite to replace the Magic Hat as manager.
He basically accepted that football pundits had made him favourite and said he was waiting for a call.
With the concerted PR over the weekend from the likes of “all things Ibrox rent a quote” Gordon Smith and others touting him as the best option and BBC Shortbread this morning saying the same I’d say that he may well get a call.
(Talking about who will be the new manager in the MSM effectively stops the talk about what actually happened to the last trio too).
Alex would be a good smokescreen for whatever else is happening down Ibrox way and buy some time for someone.
I think Alex is decent man and would simply advise him to get his contract copper bottomed by a specialist legal team.
He is about to become part of a pantomime unlike anything that ever happened in his previous Ibrox stint.
All though this pantomime stuff happens, confusion abounds but sooner or later employment law seems to trump everything else.
It allowed the “stars” in 2012 to have the choice of tupeing or walking.
It allowed Joey Barton an easy and lucrative way home to Burnley.
And it will allow Warburton and his two pals to take Mr King and his to task and in an open and shut pincer movement backed up I think by the “Football debts to be cleared first” agreement
The sudden departure of the management trio makes no real sense and has got me thinking.
It didn’t just happen.
Nothing “just happens” at Ibrox.
Someone high up and in control at Rangers wanted them out – not because they wanted them out for football reasons and not because they had been touted as a management team for another club but because I think they now wanted to create a sequence of events and this was part of the process.
Was it to take their wages off the table in the next couple of months? (probably not)
Was it to stimulate a counter claim by the trio to ring fence their monies due – and maybe start a creditor run at the same time?
(maybe)
Was it something else like an internecine war between some of the directors (also maybe)
Interesting times indeed.
Mark C. For the reasons you stated I agree I don’t think the draw in general terms is rigged. But inexplicably we went back to the less transparent bag process and voila we have the four big teams drawn at home (I’m ignoring the home run of one side just now) potentially setting up two ‘optimal’ semis. Could be pure luck of course but then why bring a questionable feature back to the fore. Are they taunting us?
And any 15 year old HomeEc pupil could design a cloth collar to cover the neck of the bowl. Come on…
Oh i agree with that. But its the SFA we are talking about. Bungle McBungleson and his fellow Bungles struggle with the slightest wee thing. A cursory look at the failed draw, which can happen, the SFA guy, looked like he was asking for his mummy…..
Surely the simplest way to end all the suspicion and innuendo which surround every cup draw is for the SFA / SPFL to buy one of those machines used by the National lottery ?
jimboFebruary 12, 2017 at 21:24
When they built Strathclyde Country Park in the 1970s, they re directed the R. Clyde which caused all sorts of problems for Fir Park in terms of in and out water flow. Haven’t heard much about that recently.
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Such a pity that they didn’t hire Hercules as he could have redirected the Clyde down Govan way
Interviews for the new TRFC manager will get interesting when they are asked the question “Do you have any long-term ambitions?”. They better think carefully about how they answer.
Jimbo
I don’t know the full facts of the geology of the area, but the Clyde at Strathclyde Park is about 80′ above sea level and Fir Park is nearly 300′ above. Drastic affects on the water table required to make Fir Park drainage difficult as a consequence would have caused some serious problems for new and existing building works all the way up Airbles and Hamilton roads.
Sounds like an old wives tale to me.
Interestingly though, Airdrie, whose old Broomfield ground was famously the highest above sea-level of all UK clubs, are actually even higher at their new place at 452′ amsl.
… and yes, i will go buy a life as soon as the sales begin
* Data from http://www.longitudestore.com – great site if you want to know if your house will survive a tsunami 🙂
Jean7Brodie
Shame on you. As one of Big Jim’s Bairns, you should know it’s Heracles
Oops sorry BP, old age doesn’t come alone
Have to say i disagree with this. Their would be claims that the balls were magnetised and drawn out by a computer programmer which could easily be fixed.
For me, ex Celtic, Aberdeen, Hearts, Hibs, Rangers, Kilmarnock players and managers puting their hands into a transparent bowl and lifting them out in a completely random order……..ie as long as Rangers are not the first ball out every time is as clear cut as it gets. Why they switched to the bag this time, not sure, but even at that and without the advantage of seeing it, it would be kind of hard to slip a dodgy ball in at the right time, whilst live on TV and if the balls were in any way different, you would have needed Malky Mackay to be part of the collusion.
Occam’s razor at play in my book. It is what it is.
Big Pink February 13, 2017 at 11:18
Interestingly though, Airdrie, whose old Broomfield ground was famously the highest above sea-level of all UK clubs, are actually even higher at their new place at 452′ amsl.
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I agree with you about Airdrie being the highest ground in Scotland but Boundary Park, Oldham at 523ft, and The Hawthorns, WBA at 550ft are both higher in the UK.
EASYJAMBOFEBRUARY 13, 2017 at 11:5
Big Pink February 13, 2017 at 11:18Interestingly though, Airdrie, whose old Broomfield ground was famously the highest above sea-level of all UK clubs, are actually even higher at their new place at 452′ amsl.=====================
I agree with you about Airdrie being the highest ground in Scotland but Boundary Park, Oldham at 523ft, and The Hawthorns, WBA at 550ft are both higher in the UK.
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When you sit at Fir Park with the almost inevitable gale blowing round the stands it feels like the highest ground in the world! As far as the surface is concerned though the new groundsman has done a miraculous job of turning it into best playing surface in the league. (Though being a perfectionist he still wants to dig it up in the close season and do some more work on the drains, apparently they are too close too the surface for his liking).
I wish I knew what height Hannah Park in Shotts was above sea level. Home of Shotts Bon Accord, it is only about half a mile, as the crow flies, from the highest point in Shotts which is where HMP Shotts is located. Local belief is that that is 1,000 ft above sea level. One of the highest villages in Scotland. I would guess Hannah park will be easily 600 ft above. BTW The bon Accord are having a tough season so I thought I would give them something to crow about. However I think their debt levels are OK and have no connection with Dave King.
(‘Scoop’ Rodgers – a real journalist – used to live a minute away.)
Unless Jean meant the bear …
jimbo February 13, 2017 at 12:30
I wish I knew what height Hannah Park in Shotts was above sea level. Home of Shotts Bon Accord, it is only about half a mile, as the crow flies, from the highest point in Shotts which is where HMP Shotts is located. Local belief is that that is 1,000 ft above sea level. One of the highest villages in Scotland. I would guess Hannah park will be easily 600 ft above. BTW The bon Accord are having a tough season so I thought I would give them something to crow about. However I think their debt levels are OK and have no connection with Dave King.
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762ft according to BP’s tool.
HMP Shotts is 821ft
I see JJ is running with an exclusive that Ashley was away to pump some serious cash into Rangers when Easdale & Llambias were in charge – at least £50m until they were all hounded out by the GASL.
I always thought that Ashley was up to something, but bleeding them dry just didn’t seem like his style (until they crossed him of course). It seems plausible that he was ready to build them up – but of course that could just be wishful thinking on my part as that makes the whole thing about 100000000% funnier.
If memory serves, did they not scare off another genuine millionaire before ending up with the current ‘Real Ranjurz Men’?
Folks
Interesting as the Ibrox skullduggery/shenanagins fandango is, it is but the manifestation of the underlying cause. Governance not fit for purpose.
In England this is recognised by Parliament who have passed a vote of No Confidence in the FA.
http://linkis.com/www.bbc.co.uk/sport/4BpEV recognising the same stuctural issues that apply to the SFA.
Why have MSP’s not taken the same approach?
Not interfering in football does not carry the weight it once did. FIFA corruption saw to that.
So what is the position of the equivalent Scottish Minister for Sport and is it not time the SG made their policy stance public and justified it?
By June, after the courts cases on ebts and CW are out of the way, the recommendations of the Tax Justice Report for SFA Reform (ignored by SMSM) will be seen as more than justified as necessary. Will our MSP’s be ready to act when that happens?
Should there not be a dialogue getting underway now with the Sports Minister to find out if they have confidence in the SFA and if not do they have plans to establish a governance system, backed by legislation if necessary, that is fit for purpose? If not why not?
If football is an important part of the social fabric of Scotland what steps are the SG (all parties, it is not a party political issue) taking to protect that fabric? Will it be Vanish and do nothing or some effective form of trust restorer?
Perhaps the Sports Minister might be prepared to participate in a SFM podcast along with input from the Scottish Football Supporters Association, who have developed good governance ideas to try and establish a pathway to much needed SFA reform.
Thanks Easyjambo, I read a couple of articles on it, couldn’t copy & paste, one said 1,000 ft the other said 930 ft at highest. The latter one said it varies between 700 + 900 throughout the village which ties in nicely with your findings. No wonder it’s always snowing here.
jimbo February 13, 2017 at 12:54
Thanks Easyjambo, I read a couple of articles on it, couldn’t copy & paste, one said 1,000 ft the other said 930 ft at highest. The latter one said it varies between 700 + 900 throughout the village which ties in nicely with your findings. No wonder it’s always snowing here.
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I checked the elevations of a few other junior grounds I’ve been to which I know are relatively high. I found the following clubs with grounds over 700ft up.
Lanark 702
Muirkirk 712
Shotts 762
Fauldhouse 772
Forth 924
Big PinkFebruary 13, 2017 at 11:21
‘…., you should know it’s Heracles!’
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Ah, yes,indeed, BP.
But unlike the football club, four years old, which falsely claims to be RFC(IL) which ceased to be a football club when aged about 140 or so, Hercules WAS actually Heracles :the same individual but who was known to the Greeks as Herakles and to the Romans, later, as Hercules.
( Not to go to far off topic, I was tickled to learn that there is an Australian politician who bears the name of a man whose personal qualities I would dearly love to have had– Xenophon)
I see that Bill Leckie has just gone native. In today’s Scottish Sun he is blaming the blind loyalty and gullibility of the Rangers fans for the situation their club now finds itself in. The bold Bill goes on to say the Bears have hailed every new charlatan as a Messiah and attacked anyone who dared question the motives of these so-called saviours. He even describes the present outfit as a Poundland version of SDM’s once great club.
Could this be the fist sign of ‘green’ shoots (copyright Norman Lamont) where the rags, in their desperation for survival, are turning away from the blue pound in an attempt to win the affection of the emerald variety? Leckie and his fellow hacks have been instrumental in conveying the same club myth to these self same fans the last four years and informing them that everything in the Ibrox garden is rosy. Now he pours scorn on the poor souls for believing all the tosh he has spewed out from his laptop since that infamous pound coin changed hands.
BILLY BOYCE
they have simply not been paid by level5,back to normal next week i would imagine
Billy Boyce, Davie Provan was saying much the same in Saturday’s Sun. Something afoot in the editorial policy? Although Derek Johnstone is still toing the party line.